Introduction to FarmManager - What it does and What it can do

Dairy Pastoral Ecosystems, whilst seemingly simple, are in reality complex, comprised as they are of many interacting components. Moreover, as with many things in life, it takes time and hands on experience to understand how a Pastoral Ecosystem actually works, what makes it "tick".

In the years and decades gone by, the knowledge and understanding required to utilize and manage a Pastoral Ecosystem effectively and efficiently, was acquired over a lifetime on the land.

Savvy farmers, when presented with an event or issue:

Where to from here - what do we do now;-

would more often than not, intuitively respond with a way forward, a way to address the event or issue. Whilst they may not have had personal first-hand experience of addressing the event or issue at hand, they were the beneficiaries of inter-generational knowledge, passed down to them over the years, both consciously and unconsciously, in the work place and around their family diner table.

What Is FarmManager - What Can It Do?

FarmManager is an "Objectives" focused "Pastoral Dairy Performance Management" tool.

It emulates the complexities of a pastoral ecosystem, the many ways in which the Physical Environment (local climate, land form, slope, aspect, soils & vegetation), Available Resources, Resource Utilization & Management and Geo-Political/
Socio-Economic, etc. views, demands and regulation, all impact and influence the Performance of Grassland-Based Dairy Ecosystems.

It is not a model that seeks to accurately predict the outcome of an event or process. Rather, it is a simulator that seeks to represent over the course of the natural seasons (winter, spring summer & autumn), the journey, the many ways in which a pastoral ecosystem can respond to the environment in which it is embedded; not forgetting the impact of resource utilization and management on its performance.

The "Destination" of a FarmManager Journey is the achievement of "Production Objectives".

A primary objective of simulators, like FarmManager, F1 Racing Car, Flight Training, America's Cup Sailing, etc., is to generate "know-how" knowledge, based on the experience of performing a task, action, responding to a challenge or opportunity, etc..

FarmManager's focus is on provisioning stock with the feed required to realize "Production Objectives", which it does by identifying and quantifying Feed Deficits. It does not emulate any aspect of a dairy cow's metabolism, simply basing provisioning upon their energy requirements.

Performance of Grassland-Based Ecosystems Influenced By:

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Productivity, Sustainability & Resiliency Objectives;
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Resource Utilization & Management;
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Climate Variability & Long-Term Climate Change;
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Stock Policy: Calving, Drying Off, Lactation, Lwt Profiles, etc;
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Stock Management: Buy, Sell, Graze Off, Milking Regime, etc;
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Supplementation Program: Fixed & Feed Deficit Balancing;
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Farm Pasture Cover, Pasture Quality (ME) & Wastage;
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Pasture Species & Growth Pattern & Rate;
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Pasture Conservation & Cropping;
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Timely & Appropriate Provisioning;
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Major Events: Drought, Flooding, Fire, Land Slip, etc;
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Regulation: Environment, Land Use, Emissions, etc;
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Socio-Economic, Geo-Political Supply Chain Disruption;
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Nitrogen Fertilizer Program;
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Irrigation,
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Etc.

All of the above influences, whether direct or indirect, are factored into FarmManager's algorithms, from climate through land form, pastures and soils, stock policy and farm pasture cover production objectives to geo-political and socio-economic influences on resource utilization and management.

Integrated Provisioning Risk Management

There are many potential sources of risk (Effect of Uncertainty on Objectives) in a pastoral ecosystem, not the least of which are the vagaries of climate, provisioning, animal health, etc. In FarmManager, however, the principal threat to the achievement of "Production Objectives" is failing to provision stock with the feed they require.

FarmManager both identifies and quantifies likely/potential provisioning threats (Pasture Feed Deficits) to the achievement of production objectives. Moreover, it flags them ahead of their occurrence, which makes it possible to prepare and implement appropriate contingency/remedial measures to mitigate them, thereby integrating the management of risk into everyday on-farm resource utilization/management and decision making.

Loss of Inter-Generational Knowledge

Understanding the intricacies and idiosyncrasies of provisioning feed/stock-intake flows in a timely and appropriate manner in a pastoral ecosystem, is a skill that all farmers/graziers need, if they are to successfully realize an enterprise's production objectives. For those who have inter-generational pastoral farming experience and knowledge behind them, more often than not, this is intuitive.

They Just Know.

Indeed many a Farmer/Grazier's unspoken thoughts when making a provisioning-related decision are:

"I know, that what I do today, the "Decisions" I make and the "Actions" I take, will have an impact on the performance of the pastoral ecosystem, not only today, but also tomorrow and maybe even, the far-off future! "

But, for those that do not have the benefit of inter-generation knowledge embedded in their sensory and memory banks, FarmManager can both guide and underpin their day-to-day resource utilization and management actions and decisions until, they too:

Just Know...that...They Know.

RUM Plan - Strategic Objectives & Resource Management

FarmManager's "RUM (Resource Utilization & Management) Plans" are Pastoral Farming's equivalent of the Aviation Industry's "Flight Plans". Both are Statements of Intent that incorporate:

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Objectives: Aviation's Destination - RUM Plan's Milk/Milk Solids Production;
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Weather/Climate: Likely to be encountered en-route - through the four seasons;
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Route: Aviation's WayPoints & Flight Levels - RUM Plan's Farm Pasture Cover Path;
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Provisioning Required: Aviation's "Fuel" & RUM Plan's "Stock Feed".

FarmManager's "RUM Plan" Operationalizes & Executes Strategic Intent.

In most "AI" implementations, questions are framed in text-based queries. In FarmManager, however, they are framed and embedded in structured "RUM Plans". This ensures that the outcome of a query is based upon and constrained by the physical environment and resource utilization/management in which a pastoral ecosystem is embedded.

Sophisticated queries can be embedded in RUM Plans, where the many components of a pastoral ecosystem can be adjusted to reflect both actual and potential circumstances, events, etc., inclusive of rainfall and temperature, either alone or in combination.

This capability makes it possible to quickly and easily, through the experience of simulating an action or management decision, to acquire knowledge and understanding of the many ways in which a Pastoral Ecosystem can respond to the environment in which it is embedded.

It could, by way of example, enhance understanding of the potential impact on "Production Objectives" of:

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Frequency of summer rainfall and the availability of soil water for pasture growth;
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Land or water use, water quality protection, etc. regulation;
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A cold spring followed by a dry summer;
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Flood debris rendering 20% of a farm's pasture land unusable for 6 months;
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Farm labour shortage making Once a Day Milking necessary;
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Etc.

Provisioning/Grazing - The "Average Pasture Cover" Metric

"Average Pasture Cover" was first used as a grazing management tool over 45 years ago in "Pastoral Ecosystem" research undertaken by the author and developer of FarmManager . The original "Sward Stick", the forerunner of the products available in the market today, was developed by the author at this time, to manage the pasture cover of experimental pastures.

This research demonstrated the influence of "Pasture Cover" (Herbage Mass) on the performance of a "Pastoral Ecosystem", and in particular the dynamics of pasture tissue flow, the grazing behaviour (pasture intake, bite size and time spent grazing) of ruminants and their productivity (milk production, live weight gain, etc.).

Original Sward Stick

In the last decade or so, general recommendations for temperate grassland "Average Pasture Cover" (APC) and "Residuals" for dairy enterprises have emerged, these being to maintain APC between 2000 and 2300 kg DM/ha and Residuals between 15-1600 kg DM/ha. The rationale underpinning the "rule of thumb" for APC being that if it is too low, cows will be underfed and if it is too high, then pasture quality and growth will decline and production will be impacted accordingly.

Objectives Focused Strategy & Resource Management

FarmManager provides holistic helicopter views of a Pastoral Ecosystem's Performance throughout the four seasons of a year, in response to the prevailing Climate, Production Objectives, Resource Utilization & Management requirements, all of which are embedded in a RUM Plan. It presents in graphic form, the outworking of a RUM Plan's strategy to date, together with projections for both the immediate and far-off future. In doing this, it provides a forward-looking context to provisioning (Resource Utilization & Management) deliberations, not only for today, but also tomorrow and the emerging future.

These forward-looking projections are just that, projections of what could emerge as the future embedded in the requirements of a RUM Plan unfold. They are not predictions of what will happen, rather graphic representations of the likely impacts and consequences of climate, resource utilization and management scenarios, etc.; i.e. what could be expected of a pastoral ecosystem embedded in a scenario, as defined in a RUM Plan.

The graphic below represents the performance of a non-irrigated dairy pastoral ecosystem in receipt of its 30 year average rainfall, stocked at 3 cows per hectare, delivering its milk solids production objective of 1159 kilograms of milk solids per hectare: all replacements grazed off the unit. To achieve both the milk solids and farm pasture cover objectives, a total feed deficit of the order of 300 tons is incurred, of which 114 tons can be met by on-farm pasture conservation (silage, baleage or hay) and a further 120 tons or so depending on the distribution of rainfall over the summer months, by a Chicory crop.

Rarely, if ever is the climate "Average", which is the raison d'etre that underpins the way in which FarmManager interprets and perturbs climate data. By way of example, the graphic below illustrates the impact and consequences of a cool October (1.5 C below average) followed by 20% less than average rainfall in December, inclusive of a dry period (2 weeks without rain), on the performance of a pastoral ecosystem, whilst maintaining production objectives for milk solids and farm pasture cover.

The two climate events increased the pastoral dairy enterprise's provisioning deficit by 167 tons, to a total of 467 tons. Moreover, the unexpected feed deficit in October, if not adequately addressed during this unexpected climate event, could impact both peak milk production and the achievement of the enterprise's milk solids objectives, and potentially, also in-calf rates.

Trial & Error - Learning Without Consequences

The efficacy of the "Trial & Error" method of mitigating or resolving both simple and complex challenges is well known and easily implemented in FarmManager.

Fore-thought and fore-action, by way of example, could mitigate the impact of reduced pasture growth in a cool October, on provisioning, and potentially peak milk, by feeding a supplement in the shed during the early days of lactation (graphic below) or alternatively, during the months preceding the commencement of calving, thereby creating a bank of feed, which if not required for grazing later, can be conserved.

There is nothing new or innovative in using supplements to generate a pasture feed bank. In FarmManager alternative ideas and strategies can be quickly and easily evaluated using a simple "Trial & Error" method: i.e. simulate the strategy or idea and see if it works. If it works, that is the principal outcome, together with the assurance and confidence that comes from quantifying provisioning requirements and cost; i.e. that previously "Unknown" becomes "Known."

If it does not work, irrespective of the reason, knowledge is gained and a learning successfully achieved without consequences; i.e. the implemented strategy does not work.

Critically, the cost of failure is restricted to the time it took to logon to FarmManager, setup and evaluate the strategy/idea.

The two weeks without rain in mid-December in the above example, highlights the climate challenge that often confronts owners/managers/graziers, prompting the often verbalized thought:

Where to from here - what do we do now?

In the above example, whomever is responsible for provisioning is confronted with the issue of finding the order of a 100 tons plus more of feed than expected, if milk solids and farm pasture cover objectives are to be achieved.

Moreover, if the feed necessary to meet these provisioning requirements cannot be sourced, irrespective of the reason(s), then the resource management options available, such as those listed below, also have "Production Objectives" consequences:

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Reducing Stock Numbers & provisioning requirements by selling culls/low producers;
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Drying Off lower performing cows early to reduce cow requirements;
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Implementing "Once-a-Day Milking" to reduce provisioning requirements;
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Etc.

The impact and consequences of resource utilization mitigation strategies and management can all be evaluated using the "Trial & Error" method.

FarmManager

Pastoral Dairy Farm Management

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